About the Data
Introduction
1. Maine's Challenge
Projected educational attainment of today's ninth graders: According to the most recent data from the Maine Department of Education, there were 19,243 ninth-graders in Maine in October 2002 (17,029 students enrolled in public schools and 2,214 students enrolled in private schools). For the purposes of our analysis, it is assumed that these ninth-graders will have the same educational experiences as recent cohorts of Maine students. According to the Maine Department of Education, 14,716 students graduated from Maine's high schools in 2002. Three years earlier, there were 18,816 ninth-graders in Maine. Evidently, the regular graduation rate in the most recent data was 78% (although it is clearly possible that there was some net migration of students over this period). Applying this rate to 19,243 ninth-graders yields 15,050 high school graduates.
The U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) data indicate that a far higher percentage will attain a high school diploma or GED. To be specific, in the three samples from 2000 to 2002, 94% of Maine residents between the ages of 25 to 39 had a high school diploma or its equivalent. Applying this rate to 19,243 ninth-graders yields 18,060 diploma-holders. Evidently, about 3,010 (18,060 minus 15,050) will obtain the diploma later than their classmates.
CPS data for the same group (25- to 39-year-old Mainers in 2000-2002) indicate that 57% of holders of high school diplomas have at least some college experience. Applying this rate to 18,060 diploma holders yields 10,367 with college experience. Recent data from the National Center for Education Statistics indicate that about 53% of regular high school graduates enroll in college the following fall. Applying this rate to 15,050 traditional high school graduates yields 7,977 traditional college students.
The 2000-2002 CPS data for 25- to 39-year-old Mainers indicate that 69% of those with college experience have a college degree. Applying this rate to 10,367 yields 7,221 college graduates. The percentage of degree holders with at least a bachelor's degree is 69%. Applying this rate to 7,221 yields 4,982 recipients of four-year degrees. This suggests that overall, 62% of recent ninth-graders veered off the road to college degrees [(19,243-7,221)/ 19,243].
Maine residents leaving the state for college: Sam Kipp, A Fresh Look at College-Going Rates in Maine, Finance Authority of Maine, 2000.
College attainment: The best source of data on college attainment for years when there is no decennial census is the CPS. The CPS samples more than 200,000 working-age (25- to 64-year-old) Americans annually, including more than 3,000 from Maine. Despite this large sample size, there is considerable year-to-year variation in average college attainment for a small state like Maine. To reduce this sampling-error variation, we calculated a three-year moving average (an approach used by the U.S. Department of Education). These attainment numbers differ from the widely used Census numbers for two reasons. The Census typically reports attainment for all adults over age 25, not just for those of typical working age. The Census also reports noticeably lower levels of associate degrees.
Working-age adults with some college: In the last five years of CPS data (1998-2002), about 15.8% of Mainers between the ages of 25 to 64 reported having "some college" but no degree. The Census Bureau projects that there will be about 710,000 Maine people in the 25-64 age bracket in 2004, and about 745,000 in 2014. These numbers suggest that there are currently more than 112,000 working-age adults in Maine with some college but no degree, and that there will be almost 118,000 adults in this category in 2014.
2. Benefits of Education
Earnings by educational attainment:
Postsecondary Education Opportunity analysis of U.S. Census data, www.postsecondary.org
Lifetime earning estimates: Jennifer Cheeseman Day and Eric C. Newberger, The Big Payoff: Educational Attainment and Synthetic Estimates of Work-Life Earnings, U.S. Census Bureau, 2002.
Thomas G. Mortenson quote: "Leading Indicator: Higher Education Opportunity in New England," Connection: The Journal of the New England Board of Higher Education, Vol. XVII, No. 5, Spring 2003
Tax revenues per bachelor's degree: In 1999 and 2000 CPS data, the average annual earnings of Maine residents with bachelor's degrees (and no higher degree) was roughly $15,650 greater than the average earnings of Maine residents with high school diplomas only (and this is a conservative figure because it does not take into account the difference in average weeks worked). State and local taxes amounted to 13.4% of personal income in Maine in 1999-00 (calculated using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis). Thus, the average additional state and local tax revenues per bachelor's degree in Maine are about $2,100 annually. This is a conservative estimate of the additional tax revenues because it ignores the fact that state and local taxes are somewhat progressive. That is, the calculation does not take into account that tax payments increase slightly more than proportionately with income.
3. A Paradigm Shift: College as Right and Responsibility
Maine students' national rankings: National Assessment of Educational Progress: The Nation's Report Card
www.nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/ . See The Nation's Report Card: Reading Highlights 2003 and The Nation's Report Card: Science 2000, U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics.
4. Building a New Road to Higher Education
College attainment: Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau (see College attainment explanation in the Maine's Challenge section, above).
Goal for increasing the number of degree holders: Average college attainment has risen more or less steadily for decades. Therefore, it would be inappropriate to use the current level of educational attainment in New England as a 10-year or 15-year target. A projection of future attainment levels is obtained through a simple linear extrapolation of past increases in attainment. The projected annual growth rates of college degree attainment in Maine and New England are assumed to be the same as their average annual growth rates over the past 10 years (0.83% in Maine, and 0.67% in New England). Although there are legitimate reasons to quibble about this methodology, it should be kept in mind that it is consistently applied. That is, if the projected increases are too high, they are probably too high for both Maine and New England.
Maine high school graduates and projections: These figures combine data on the number of Maine public, publicly-funded, and private high school graduates from the Maine Department of Education (www.state.me.us/education/enroll/grads/gradspost.htm) with negative growth rates developed by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. See Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income, and Race/Ethnicity, www.wiche.edu/policy/knocking/1988%2D2018.
High school graduates enrolling in college, Maine and New England: Digest of Education Statistics 2002, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education.
Degree completion rate in Maine: All data are from Digest of Education Statistics, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, various years.
These numbers are based on estimates of full-time (FTE) undergraduate students. FTE numbers are available for total (undergraduate and graduate) enrollment, but not for undergraduate enrollment. To convert undergraduate enrollment into FTE undergraduate enrollment, the FTE percentage (FTE enrollment divided by enrollment) for total enrollment was applied to undergraduate enrollment. In other words, it is assumed that the FTE percentage (about 75% in Maine, New England, and the U.S.) is the same for undergraduate and graduate students. Note that this measure includes some double counting of degrees when students earn both associate and bachelor's degrees.
Action Strategies
1. Maine's Promise Scholarship Program
Maine and national average tuition: Philip Trostel's analysis of U.S. Department of Education data. See "Economic Prosperity in Maine: Held Back by the Lack of Higher Education," Maine Policy Review, Winter 2002.
Poverty in Maine: 2000 Census data show that 10.9% of Maine's population lived below the poverty level. CPS data for 2003 suggest that Maine's poverty rate has risen to 11.9%. Maine Department of Education data show that 25% of Maine public school students participate in the free lunch program, for which students from families with incomes below the poverty level are eligible.
Projected number of eligible students: There are several ways in which the number of students participating in the Maine's Promise Scholarship Program could substantially exceed the projections presented here. For example:
- Approximately 2,500 additional currently enrolled students (beyond the anticipated new students above) who are not currently eligible for the scholarship program could become eligible by altering their behaviors.
- Approximately 2,500 additional traditional-age graduating high school seniors this year (beyond the anticipated new students above) from families with an annual income below 200% of the poverty level do not intend to enroll in a postsecondary institution but could be encouraged to enroll.
- Countless nontraditional students may be eligible and may be encouraged to enroll.
Per capita expenditures on postsecondary education: Grapevine, a National Database of State Tax Support for Higher Education, Center for the Study of Education Policy, Illinois State University, www.coe.ilstu.edu/grapevine.
2. Maine Early College Initiative
Estimate of current early college experiences: In 2002-2003, there were 29,212 students in grades 11 and 12 in Maine's public schools (Maine Department of Education, www.state.me.us/education/enroll/fall/2003/fenpbg03.htm). 4,565 students, 16% of 11th and 12th graders, took AP exams in 2003 (The College Board, www.collegeboard.com/student/testing/ap/exgrd_sum/2003.html). 470 students, 2% of 11th and 12th graders, took a class at a college campus through the state's Higher Education Access program (Harry Osgood, Higher Education Specialist, Maine Department of Education). These figures combined give us an estimate of at least 18% of Maine high school students currently participating in an early college experience. Although some of the students who take classes through Higher Education Access may also take AP exams, this estimate does not include students who take a college class through agreements with individual campuses or those who take AP classes but do not take AP exams, so is probably a conservative estimate.
3. Maine College College Transition Initiative
Number of participants in Adult Education programs statewide: Maine Adult Education Annual Report 2003, Maine Department of Education, www.state.me.us/education/aded/reports/Maine%20Adult%20Ed%20Annual.pdf
4. College for ME Employer Initiative
Employer support for adults enrolled in college courses: Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Southern Maine, 2000.
Jobs for the Future study: Getting Ahead: A Survey of Low-Wage Workers on Opportunities for Advancement,
2003 (www.jff.org/jff/kc/library/0198)
5. College for ME Campaign
Harold L. Hodgkinson quote: All One System: A Second Look, Institute for Educational Leadership and National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, 1999.
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